The Snowball stat thread

[Ian Royal]

Still got the figures written down by my desk. 78%.
PL: 79%
Chump: 84%
L1: 75%
L2: 74%

For some reason very few pens given in League two comparatively. Half L1 or Chump.

http://www.football-lineups.com/tourn/The_Championship_2010-2011/Stats/Penalties/ very handy website.

[Ian Royal]

Why don't we, as good statisticians, use a sample size greater than 4 (which doesn't confer any statistical signifiance) Let's take, say, the 2010/2011 Premier League season.

Penalties awarded: 103

Penalties missed: 21

I hope we can all agree that we're looking at about 20% being missed ie. 80% being scored.

80% is less than 85%, if you're struggling with that bit as well.

And why aren't we talking about Reading FC games?

Because we're being generous. Reading FC games over the last 3 and a half seasons drops the success rate to 70% as posted two or three pages ago.

[Snowball]

And how do you know that penalty conversion rates are the same across different divisions

And why aren't we talking about Reading FC games?

[Snowball]

Still got the figures written down by my desk. 78%.
PL: 79%
Chump: 84%
L1: 75%
L2: 74%

For some reason very few pens given in League two comparatively. Half L1 or Chump.

http://www.football-lineups.com/tourn/The_Championship_2010-2011/Stats/Penalties/ very handy website.

If you click on that link, the first page, the one you pick, shows 157 Penalties with 19 missed.

19/157 is 12.1%.

That is 87.9% scored

[Snowball]

And why aren't we talking about Reading FC games?

Because we're being generous. Reading FC games over the last 3 and a half seasons drops the success rate to 70% as posted two or three pages ago.[/quote]

And you damn well know we had one utterly freak game with 3 pens, 2 missed
and then you count Roberts' goal as a miss (I don't)

We shall see what happens when I look at all the RFC seasons.

[Ian Royal]

And how do you know that penalty conversion rates are the same across different divisions

And why aren't we talking about Reading FC games?

They aren't and you are the one who (incorrectly) stated research shows 85% of penalties are scored. This has uncontestably been proven as incorrect. Your own quote of the research you were speaking of (which wasn't a huge sample iirc) was based only on penalties which were on target. A much larger sample (1393 penalties) across four divisions and three leagues has been provided along with figures for threee and a half years for the very team you are talking about, proving your figure wrong. And yet you are still arguing.

Grow a pair of balls, get some social skills and admit you were wrong. AGAIN. It doesn't hurt. It would get you a lot more respect (if you didn't have to be near bludgeoned to death with the evidence before you admit it).

And why aren't we talking about Reading FC games?

Because we're being generous. Reading FC games over the last 3 and a half seasons drops the success rate to 70% as posted two or three pages ago.

And you damn well know we had one utterly freak game with 3 pens, 2 missed
and then you count Roberts' goal as a miss (I don't)

We shall see what happens when I look at all the RFC seasons.[/quote]
I don't count Roberts penalty as a miss, EVERY STATISTICIAN counts Roberts penalty as a miss. Except you.

Well done, you've found a smaller (and therefore less significant) sample which supports your position. Now look at the mountain of other evidence you are ignoring and conceed you are wrong, you unbearable, hateful troll.

My aboslute last word on the subject, because there is abosolutely nothing left for me to add to show you are wrong. And there is nothing left you can say which supports your erroneous position which has not already been dealt with.

[Maguire]

And you damn well know we had one utterly freak game with 3 pens, 2 missed

That's why you increase your sample size rather than reduce it.

Can I teach you anything else before I iron my shirt for tomorrow or is that enough to struggle with for now?

[Snowball]

I would like to thank Mr Ian Royal for his kindness in highlighting the web-site showing all Championship Penalties taken, scored and missed for the last 5.7 seasons.

Here are the figures

Pns-Hit-Miss-% - Season
070 054 16 0.77 2011-12
157 138 19 0.88 2010-11
124 103 21 0.83 2009-10
142 113 29 0.80 2008-09
105 097 08 0.92 2007-08
040 035 05 0.88 2006-07

638 540 98 0.85 OVERALL

Note how, in one season the hit-rate was 92%, another two 88%

That is in 3 out of 5.7 seasons the figure is in excess of 85%
and in a fourth it was 83%.

It HAPPENS, currently, with a smaller sample size, this seasons'
penalty figures drop the overall figure, to, ummm, 85%

If you take the last 5 COMPLETE seasons the figure rises to 86%


But using these official figures, kindly provided by Ian Royal
For 5 Seasons and 32 games, lo and behold, 85% of penalties are scored
(not including saves/rebounds then knocked it)



85%

[Snowball]

So Maggy-Waggy, is 5.7 consecutive Championship seasons OK?



Cos that comes out at 85% me ol' china.



85%



Thanks for the lesson.

[Snowball]

My aboslute last word on the subject, because there is abosolutely nothing left for me to add to show you are wrong. And there is nothing left you can say which supports your erroneous position which has not already been dealt with.

You can see Ian getting REALLY flustered. Check his spelling of absolute!!!

There isn't a normal human being, statistician or not who can argue that my using

THE STATS YOU PROVIDED, and using ALL the penalties taken in The Championship,

FIGURES YOU PROVIDED (where RFC have played in that exact same period)

could in any way, shape or form be considered "carefully selected, or skewed.

I was told 85%.

The figures YOU HAVE PROVIDED say 85%


It's 85%. 85% 85%

and the reason you've gone off on one, is you've shot yourself in the radio-listening foot.

[Maguire]

So Maggy-Waggy, is 5.7 consecutive Championship seasons OK

Not when he's done it for every league for seasons, no. Why choose a smaller sample? Oh yeah, because you don't understanbd statistics.

And not when the piece you originally cited as your evidence stated quite clearly (which you misread) that it was only 85% of penalties where the shot hit the target.

But chin up, nice try anyway

[Snowball]

Nice try, my ASS

Ian the Wobble posted the URL which allegedly "proved me wrong"
and those very stats, taken in their entirety show 85% conversion of pens.



I see your spelling is wobbling too.

[Maguire]

So Maggy-Waggy, is 5.7 consecutive Championship seasons OK

Not when he's done it for every league for seasons, no. Why choose a smaller sample? Oh yeah, because you don't understanbd statistics.

And not when the piece you originally cited as your evidence stated quite clearly (which you misread) that it was only 85% of penalties where the shot hit the target.

But chin up, nice try anyway

Like I said ^

You've got nothing. I really do think you should notch GCSE maths or something before you set your sights on a degree mush.

[Snowball]

So Maggy-Waggy, is 5.7 consecutive Championship seasons OK

Not when he's done it for every league for seasons, no. Why choose a smaller sample? Oh yeah, because you don't understanbd statistics.

No, I don't understabbandddd.

How can you possibly say that figures for league 2, league 1, the Prem from, (say) up to ten years ago
are more valid than the most recent 5.7 years FOR THE LEAGUE WE PLAY IN.

Maybe we should include foreign games, and women's games and schoolkids' games?



You are so WRONG, so utterly, utterly dead in the water.

[Snowball]

Open University, MST281, Maths for Science & Technology II:I

Open University, S121 Statistics. II:I

Liverpool University, Statistics for Psychology. I

Liverpool University, Multiple Regression. I

Birkbeck University, Propositional Logic, QL II:I




But no O-Level

[Wimb]

This thread is like when you see an accident on the motorway... you don't want to look at it as it's just horrible but yet you can't help but look in on it

[Snowball]

Yup, rubber-neckers are pretty dumb people without lives.


Oh, Hi!

[Snowball]

I was just looking at some stats.

Did you know that 85% of all penalties taken in the Championship
over the last 5 Seasons plus 32/33 matches, were scored?


That's AMAZING. I'd've thought it was nearer 85%

[Snowball]

Points against Minutes Played

I had no idea how this table might pan out, but I find it interesting how our two "class acquisitions" from January
stand out on the stats too, closely followed by Ian Harte. Interesting, too that the next pair are our two players
who have magic in their boots.

After that they are all so similar - exactly as we might expect from "a balanced side without stars"

Only surprise to me is L-wood being low down. I guess that's down to how poor he was for the first 6+ games
and the fact he's been out for some of the clean sheets and is down on goals/assists

0,424 Minutes Played 30 Pts 14.13 Mins/Point - Roberts
0,360 Minutes Played 25 Pts 14.40 Mins/Point - Connolly

1,435 Minutes Played 69 Pts 20.80 Mins/Point - Harte
1,559 Minutes Played 65 Pts 23.98 Mins/Point - Le Fondre
1,895 Minutes Played 77 Pts 24.61 Mins/Point - Kebe
0,745 Minutes Played 25 Pts 29.80 Mins/Point - Griffin

2,285 Minutes Played 73 Pts 31.30 Mins/Point - McAnuff
2,880 Minutes Played 90 Pts 32.00 Mins/Point - Pearce
1,496 Minutes Played 46 Pts 32.52 Mins/Point - Church
1,964 Minutes Played 60 Pts 32.73 Mins/Point - Cummings
2,519 Minutes Played 75 Pts 33.59 Mins/Point - Gorkss
2,880 Minutes Played 85 Pts 33.88 Mins/Point - Federici
2,296 Minutes Played 67 Pts 34.27 Mins/Point - Karacan
0,879 Minutes Played 24 Pts 36.63 Mins/Point - Tabb
1,357 Minutes Played 37 Pts 36.68 Mins/Point - HRK
1,850 Minutes Played 49 Pts 37.76 Mins/Point - Hunt
2,608 Minutes Played 69 Pts 37.80 Mins/Point - Leigertwood
1,198 Minutes Played 30 Pts 39.93 Mins/Point - Mills

[From Despair To Where?]

Jesus, is Raymond Babbitt still waffling on?