Goal Difference!

[Ian Royal]

I oxf*rd hope we finish 7th personally.

02/03 - 4th
03/04 - 9th
04/05 - 7th
05/06 - 1st
//
08/09 - 4th
09/10 - 9th
10/11 - 7th?
11/12 - ....

[Snowball]

I'll happily agree that if we have the 3rd best goal difference at the end of the season we will make the play offs. NOt coz we have it now, coz we have it at the end of the season. Basically we will have won more games and have gained more points that others around us. Winning games = +ve goal difference

so are you saying you think we will finish 2nd 3rd or 4th or not?
sometimes you say probably, sometimes you say if , sometimes you say if means probably but its by no means certain
come on, what do you predict, top 6 finish? or are you going to stay on the fence and then come back in the summer and say "told you so" no matter the outcome.
I think we will just miss out.
What do you think? What are you trying to say, other than that if we have the 3rd best goal difference at the end of the season we will finish near the top of the table?

When I started this thread (try reading the actual oxf*rd posts) I was NOT predicting our final position. What I mean by that is I was NOT predicting our final position. I'm trying to explain to you that I was NOT predicting our final position. Or to put it another way, "I was NOT predicting our final position".

I was NOT predicting our final position
I was NOT predicting our final position
I was NOT predicting our final position

Am I getting through to you yet? I was NOT predicting our final position.

What I said was that we had the third best GD "TODAY" and that GD has an extremely strong correlation with position, AND, my inference from that was we were a side who THOUGH in seventh place, were VERY probably better than seventh best team. But I was NOT predicting our final position. I was NOT predicting our final position, nor was I predicting our final position.

Are you staying with me on this? Do you yet understand that I was NOT predicting our final position? Well done.

Now imagine we WEREN'T talking about goal difference for a minute. The best estimate of a team's worth is their current league position. "Therefore" the best estimate of Reading's "worth" (ignoring the added complexities of games in hand) is that they are RIGHT NOW the seventh-best team in the league. of course, even a Nobber should know that is STUPID, because a week or so earlier (January 3rd) we were EIGHTH best team (based on that criteria). AND TWO DAYS BEFORE THAT WE WERE "ELEVENTH BEST".

So are we 7th, 8th, or 11th? We've been all three positions in just 14 days.

Do you see how league position in such a tight league (at this point of the season) is NOT a great marker? No side goes from a real, actual 11th-best to seventh-best in two weeks. At this stage of the season the table is too tight and placings too volatile.

But how has our GOAL DIFFERENCE fared over the last X games?

[weybridgewanderer]

OK, lets review the first post on this thread

GD is a very good predictor of final position and our current GD OF +10 is twice that of last season's finish.

1 22 +26 +1.18 per game Queens Park Rangers
2 22 +15 +0.68 per game Cardiff City
3 22 +10 +0.45 per game Reading
4 20 +07 +0.35 per game Nottingham Forest
5 21 +07 +0.33 per game Burnley

To me this is predicting 3rd place, what is it predicting to you?

would it help if I put it in a much larger font?

[Snowball]

But how has our GOAL DIFFERENCE fared over the last X games?

5th Best After QPR 10th position in the table
5th Best after Cardiff 10th Position in Table
6th Best after Norwich 9th in table
5th Best after Watford 11th in Table
6th Best after Leeds 11th in Table
5th Best after Coventry 14th in Table
4th Best after Derby 7th in table
3rd Best after Bristol 7th in Table
4th Best after Swansea 11th in Table
4th Best after Burnley 8th in Table
3rd Best after Doncaster 7th in table

Our average position for GD has been 4.54

Our average position on POINTS has been 9.54

If you think THIS WEEK we are the seventh-best club and likely to finish seventh, did you, ten games ago predict we'd be 10th, then a week or so later change your mind to 9th, then get gloomy and think (after the Watford game) "we will be 11th"? Do you literally ONLY look at our current position and predict the final one from that? Maybe you pick our average position for the season (about 12th)?

What I am saying, and have been saying all along, is that there is a steady growth of GD which reflects the truth MORE than actual points. True there are crazy games like Leeds 4-6 Preston or Millwall losing 1-6 at home, but as the games accumulate Goal Difference begins to settle down and MORE ACCURATELY REFLECT a team's true ability.

Look at our GD position the way it has crept up

5-5-6-5-6-5-4-3-4-4-3

That isn't anomalous. That is steady, with a slow, definite improvement since Elwood started and Shane started his scoring splurge


THEN, given that there is a .91 correlation between FINAL GD and FINAL position, and that psoitions after 17-18-19-20-21-22-23-24-25-26 games are volatile, I'm saying I believe we are "worth" 3rd/4th place NOW and that our seventh place is a bit false.

That is ALL I started out saying. We could blow up and finish 13th. We could hold this run until the end of the season and get second.

But I am saying, and started out saying, that I think we are better than seventh TODAY. And yes, I am oxf*rd aware of the table.

NOTTINGHAM FOREST's GD of 12, is really better than ours as they've played two less games. They've also only lost 4 games and are putting a strong run together. I expect them to be second or third by the end of the season.

SWANSEA, OTOH have lost NINE games and have a GD of just 9, and are capable of losing 4-0. I expect them to fall away from second.

WATFORD are doing incredibly well with a hatful of brilliant kids, and a GD noticeably better than us (+2 in a game less) so in reality our GD is FOURTH, not 3rd and the game against Watford will be massive.

My whole point is this. AT THIS POINT IN THE SEASON, I BELIEVE that GD is a better indicator of "worth" than points. IF there were no changes to teams due to the transfer window, I would expect QPR and Forest to be the automatic places with Watford 3rd and us 4th in a close battle with Cardiff. But there are a lot of good sides. I'm impressed by sides that avoid many defeats (like QPR-3, Forest-4, Reading-6, Norwich-6; then Watford-7, Leeds-7, Millwall-7, Burnley-7). Watford might (might) "blow" purely because they have such a young side and might not deal well with set-backs. I would be worried about Leicester but they have a deficit of 4 points and 20 Goals GD to make up and we have a game in hand on them. If they make the POs they will deserve it!

All the above goes to pot if a side is radically changed. Take Kebe and Long out of RFC, for example...

[weybridgewanderer]

So what is the goal difference predicting our final league position will be

you said it was a good predictor of final league position

GD is a very good predictor of final position

So what is it predicting?

[Snowball]

OK, lets review the first post on this thread

GD is a very good predictor of final position and our current GD OF +10 is twice that of last season's finish.

1 22 +26 +1.18 per game Queens Park Rangers
2 22 +15 +0.68 per game Cardiff City
3 22 +10 +0.45 per game Reading
4 20 +07 +0.35 per game Nottingham Forest
5 21 +07 +0.33 per game Burnley

To me this is predicting 3rd place, what is it predicting to you?

would it help if I put it in a much larger font?

And what about my third post in the thread where I clarified my point?

DUH. We have the third-best GD and clear of others, but are 7th.

That's a way of saying, maybe we'll end up third if we have a GD of about 22 by season's end

(emphasis added)

[weybridgewanderer]

so it stopped being a good predictor fo final league position after 3 posts?

Its not a good predictor of final league position?

I am confused, is it a good predictor or not?

Or is it a good predictor and what is it predicting if it is not 3rd?

[weybridgewanderer]

First line of the first post in the thread (ie the start of this thread)

GD is a very good predictor of final position

by page page 9

When I started this thread (try reading the actual oxf*rd posts) I was NOT predicting our final position.

[Snowball]

So what is the goal difference predicting our final league position will be

you said it was a good predictor of final league position

GD is a very good predictor of final position

So what is it predicting?

Stop being deliberately obtuse.

Final, ie after the last game, ie when 46 games have been played, Goal Difference is a very good indicator of a team's quality. It has a 91% correspondence with position.

I am arguing that half-way through a season POINTS are NOT truly indicative of quality, that they are LESS indicative than Goal Difference.

I am also arguing that teams with a goal difference of "third" are probably the third-best side.

I am arguing that I believe Reading FC to be around about the FOURTH (not third) best team because they have the fourth-best GD pg behind QPR, Watford and Forest.

In RFC's favour, I believe them to be an improving side due to Elwood and a resurgent Long.



I do NOT mean that GD after 3-6-9-12 or 26 games is a great predictor of final position.

I mean it's a great measure of CURRENT "worth". Sides may fade or improve. Sides may bring in star players or lose their star players. Sides may suffer serious injuries.

But IF nothing changed, then I'd expect QPR as Champions with Watford/Forest fighting for second/third, RFC in fourth but seriously pressed by Cardiff, Millwall, Burnley. I predict Swansea falling away.

I don't know who has signed whom, or if any of these clubs have lost a star player or will do before the end of the month. My predictions haven't taken into account any major changes to personnel.

Right now I think we have a great chance of fourth but it would be so easy to be sixth or seventh, NOT because we are currently "seventh-best" (we are 4th-best as I see it) but because we have a lot of six-pointers to play, Cardiff, QPR, Millwall, Norwich, Watford, Forest and the sides are so close to each other, a flash of genius, a bad decision, a piece of luck could swing it. That "swing" as the season gets late could make a massive difference. For example, beating Millwall and Watford at the Mad Stad would now be HUGE results.

[weybridgewanderer]

Stop being deliberately obtuse.

Final, ie after the last game, ie when 46 games have been played, Goal Difference is a very good indicator of a team's quality. It has a 91% correspondence with position.
I do NOT mean that GD after 3-6-9-12 or 26 games is a great predictor of final position.

I am the one being obtuse?

Your first post said "GD was a good predictor of final league position". You then slate me for not reading the posts as you did not set out to predict anything

You do not "predict" final league position after the last game. If so i would take money of Mr Hills every season. Just like I could predict the score at 5 o'clock every Saturday.

I totall agree there is a strong correlaton between current goal differemce and current league postion, be that at game 23 or game 46

TBH I get the impression have reconsidered your position since starting the thread and that goal difference is perhaps not a "predictor" of final league position.

[Snowball]

so it stopped being a good predictor fo final league position after 3 posts?

Its not a good predictor of final league position?

Or is it a good predictor and what is it predicting if it is not 3rd?

Small words.

1. GD is a very good way to see a team's worth.

2. GD TODAY is a very good way to see a team's worth TODAY.

3. GD at 26 games is a better way to see a team's worth than points (IMO)

4. RFC have the third-best GD, the 4th-best GDpg. That is why I say they are the 3rd-4th best side TODAY

5. IF they have the third-best GD at the end of the season, I believe they will finish 3rd, + or - 1 place.

6. TODAY, right now, they look 4th (overtaken by Forest.) If I was guessing now I'd predict 3-4-5th

7. Purchases or sales or injuries or luck might change any club's fortune.

8. I think Swansea will not be second. They may well miss the POs.

9. I have NEVER said that GD after 24-25-26 games predicts final position

[weybridgewanderer]

9. I have NEVER said that GD after 24-25-26 games predicts final position[/b]

Lets review the first line of the first post again

"GD is a very good predictor of final position "

So when does it predict final league position? after game 46?

[Snowball]

Stop being deliberately obtuse.

Final, ie after the last game, ie when 46 games have been played, Goal Difference is a very good indicator of a team's quality. It has a 91% correspondence with position.
I do NOT mean that GD after 3-6-9-12 or 26 games is a great predictor of final position.

I am the one being obtuse?

Your first post said "GD was a good predictor of final league position". You then slate me for not reading the posts as you did not set out to predict anything

You do not "predict" final league position after the last game. If so i would take money of Mr Hills every season. Just like I could predict the score at 5 o'clock every Saturday.

I totall agree there is a strong correlation between current goal differemce and current league postion, be that at game 23 or game 46

TBH I get the impression have reconsidered your position since starting the thread and that goal difference is perhaps not a "predictor" of final league position.

I'm thinking of substituting a different word for "obtuse"

If, after 4 games I wrote "GD is a good predictor of final league position" would you think I meant GD AFTER FOUR GAMES is a good predictor of final league position?

of course not.

Absolutely NOWHERE have I said "GD after 24/25/26 games is a good indicator of FINAL position"

You have misread or assumed. You cannot find a post where I said it because I DIDN'T say it.

But you CAN read, very early on, where I made it totally clear what I was arguing

GD is a very good predictor of final position

No sh!t, top teams have better goal difference than lower teams, never would have thought that would be the case.

DUH. We have the third-best GD and clear of others, but are 7th.

That's a way of saying, maybe we'll end up third if we have a GD of about 22 by season's end

It's clear. It's explicit. You are ignoring that fact.

[Snowball]

9. I have NEVER said that GD after 24-25-26 games predicts final position[/b]

Lets review the first line of the first post again

"GD is a very good predictor of final position "

So when does it predict final league position? after game 46?

This is like a remedial class.

"FINAL GD is a very good predictor of final position "

In the first three-quarters of the season (IMO) GD is a better or more accurate measure of a team's worth. Because of that, I believe RFC are a BETTER team than their 7th position would indicate.

That was what I meant. That was what I've been arguing all along

[weybridgewanderer]

If, after 4 games I wrote "GD is a good predictor of final league position" would you think I meant GD AFTER FOUR GAMES is a good predictor of final league position?

I would think you meant it yes

of course not.

well if it is not what you were meaning, why would you have written it? How am I supposed differentiate between what you write that you mean and what you write that you don't mean? Specially with some "facts" to back it up.

TBH I just think you have realised you were wrong, goal difference is not a good predictor of final league position. You are desperately trying to keep some credability. You would get more credability if you admitted you were wrong in your first post. Correlation and predictability have little relationship. I totally agree there is a strong correlation all the way down the line.

I do not agree with your first post that it is a good predictor of final league position.

It appears you agree

[RoyalX]

I can't say I always agree with Snowball, but he is spot on here. Goal Difference is a much better indicator of a team's worth than their current position. People in the betting industry rarely look at league tables (in fact, they try to avoid it) and yet they use Goal Difference as part of their ratings system.

This doesn't mean there is a magical number of games after which a team with the xth best goal difference will finish in xth place.

TBH this smacks of trying to seem cool by having a pop at Snowball like everyone else. If you stop arguing semantics and look at what he's trying to say it's actually pretty intelligent stuff.

[Arch]

I can't say I always agree with Snowball, but he is spot on here. Goal Difference is a much better indicator of a team's worth than their current position. People in the betting industry rarely look at league tables (in fact, they try to avoid it) and yet they use Goal Difference as part of their ratings system.

This doesn't mean there is a magical number of games after which a team with the xth best goal difference will finish in xth place.

TBH this smacks of trying to seem cool by having a pop at Snowball like everyone else. If you stop arguing semantics and look at what he's trying to say it's actually pretty intelligent stuff.

Hi Snowball.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

I cant see why RFC are worth being 4th, just because we have a decent GD.

Points win prizes not GD, GD kicks in when points are even, the teams with more points are most likely to have the best GD, and vice-versa at any point in any season really.

First priority is and always will be points not GD, it is why when teams are 3 or 4 up they take players off and rest them. BM does, like Coppell play to score, and likes to keep the team going forward, you do not concede many when the ball is in the other half of the pitch.

[From Despair To Where?]

Repetative stat posting by Snowball is a very strong indicator that the thread is best avoided

[weybridgewanderer]

I cant see why RFC are worth being 4th, just because we have a decent GD.

Points win prizes not GD, GD kicks in when points are even, the teams with more points are most likely to have the best GD, and vice-versa at any point in any season really.

First priority is and always will be points not GD, it is why when teams are 3 or 4 up they take players off and rest them. BM does, like Coppell play to score, and likes to keep the team going forward, you do not concede many when the ball is in the other half of the pitch.

As teams have not all played the same number of games, I think goal difference is one indicator of "current worth" as, for example, is recent form.