HRK new contract?

[Snowball]

I actually fancy HRK for Championship top-scorer next year if he's a regular

ALF is 11-1, Pog is 20-1, HRK doesn't appear on the list which goes up to 100-1

That would be a very interesting each-way bet.





Edit. Can anyone see official odds for him?

[Haag Royal]

Can't see what all the fuss is about. Over rated, spends more time looking at the crowd for adulation when warming up than anyone I have ever seen, not fit enough to back track and defend and certainly not worth a first team start. Off the bench maybe. I would have sold him.

[soggy biscuit]

I actually fancy HRK for Championship top-scorer next year if he's a regular

not sure if serious

[Snowball]

I actually fancy HRK for Championship top-scorer next year if he's a regular

not sure if serious

So, why should a player who scored every 182 minutes in the Premiership, who is still improving,
who is in a side with a better midfield, at least one better winger, a top manager, not expect to score
a goal every (say) 170 minutes?

And if he's played, and does that, he has every chance of being top-scorer

Thus an each-way bet at 100-1 or higher odds is great value.

[The Rouge]

I have actually thought about having a couple of quid on this but it depends:

a) if Adkins gives him a chance to be a play every week player
b) what position they employ him in (winger hugging the touchline, winger with a lot of licence to cut in/play narrow, in the hole behind one other striker)

I understand why some get frustrated with him, and I do think fitness and the defensive side of his game needs to improve, but I would expect people to recognise his ability to create scoring opportunities high up the pitch, his heading ability and positioning at the far stick and his fairly impressive finishing overall.

[Snowball]

I have actually thought about having a couple of quid on this but it depends:

a) if Adkins gives him a chance to be a play every week player
b) what position they employ him in (winger hugging the touchline, winger with a lot of licence to cut in/play narrow, in the hole behind one other striker)

I understand why some get frustrated with him, and I do think fitness and the defensive side of his game needs to improve, but I would expect people to recognise his ability to create scoring opportunities high up the pitch, his heading ability and positioning at the far stick and his fairly impressive finishing overall.

There are always ifs and buts, I agree, but I thought HRK was seriously beginning to look like a top player last season.

Scoring 7 goals in so few minutes on the pitch, in the Premiership, and playing for a very
uncompetitive side...

Going the other way, except for one rare exception, Championship top-scorers usually get about 40%
as many goals in the Premiership when they go up or are transferred. That means that coming down FROM
the Prem, a 10-goal player could expect to score 25.

There are probably ten players who might win top-scorer including ALF, Rhodes (Pog? if he stays) but
if HRK is really over 100-1, that's a fantastic price.

[madreadingfan]

Seriously? HRK was class last season especially under Adkins. Though, I think his best match last season was against Man United where he tore Evra apart down that right flank in the 4-3 Home defeat. Would be very happy if he signs and just to think there was a hatred by Reading fans for him and Simon Church back in the day.

[Ian Royal]

You'd better sit yourself down snowball.



I think it's quite plausible that HRK could push close to 20 goals if he played 40+ games and was on penalty duty. His coring abillity has always been consistently good for his opportunities. He's a natural finisher. But he'll have his work cut out to do that with strong competition from Kebe, McAnuff, Drenthe & McCleary for the more flair roles and ALF, Pog etc for the striking roles. I think he'd struggle to get penalties out of ALF's hands if they're both playing. Not sure about others.

[Ian Royal]

I have actually thought about having a couple of quid on this but it depends:

a) if Adkins gives him a chance to be a play every week player
b) what position they employ him in (winger hugging the touchline, winger with a lot of licence to cut in/play narrow, in the hole behind one other striker)

I understand why some get frustrated with him, and I do think fitness and the defensive side of his game needs to improve, but I would expect people to recognise his ability to create scoring opportunities high up the pitch, his heading ability and positioning at the far stick and his fairly impressive finishing overall.

There are always ifs and buts, I agree, but I thought HRK was seriously beginning to look like a top player last season.

Scoring 7 goals in so few minutes on the pitch, in the Premiership, and playing for a very
uncompetitive side...

Going the other way, except for one rare exception, Championship top-scorers usually get about 40%
as many goals in the Premiership when they go up or are transferred. That means that coming down FROM
the Prem, a 10-goal player could expect to score 25.There are probably ten players who might win top-scorer including ALF, Rhodes (Pog? if he stays) but
if HRK is really over 100-1, that's a fantastic price.

No it doesn't. It means you can expect a player going up to score 40% as many goals. You'd need to look at stats for players coming down to make a judgement on that based on stats. False stating once more.

[Snowball]

You really aren't very bright, are you, Ian?

[Snowball]

We KNOW the stats for players going up, and it's a fact that they find goals 2.5 times harder to score
(not quite true as it's 38 games v 46)

It's is perfectly reasonable to suggest that if, going up, makes goals 2.5 times rarer,
coming down makes them 2.5 times easier.

One reason for NOT looking at stats of players dropping down is often they are players past their best, in decline.

Even so, Roberts, never a goal machine, looked superb when he stepped down.

221 Appearances 14,480 Minutes 36 Goals - 21 Assists 23 402 Mins/Goal Premier League
062 Appearances 05,416 Minutes 27 Goals - 14 Assists 11 201 Mins/Goal Championship


If you extrapolate both to full seasons playing 90 minutes you get


08.51 Goals Championship
20.60 Goals Championship


and what do you know it/'s that 2.5 multiple again!

[maffff]

and what's the step down from Championship to League 1? and League 1 to League 2? and League 2 to Blue Square Premier? and Blue Square Premier to Blue Square North

I want to know how many goals a season ALF will score when he rejoins Stockport. They seem to be the only club not linked with him yet so that must be where he'll end up.

[Snowball]

Jason Roberts, our own player, is a great example as he has been promoted twice and relegated twice

I took his goals per minute and multiplied them out into 38*90 or 46*90


04 Goals per Season Premiership
22 Goals per Season Championship 550% x Multiple
10 Goals per Season Premiership 45% (2.2 Multiple)
22 Goals per Season Championship 220% (2.2 Multiple)
00 Goals per Season Premiership



032 02,718 Minutes 03 Goals 906 Mins/Goal Premiership
010 00,486 Minutes 01 Goals 486 Mins/Goal Premiership

042 03,204 Minutes 04 Goals 801 Mins/Goal Premiership (Average 2 Seasons)

WENT DOWN

045 03,988 Minutes 21 Goals 190 Mins/Goal "22 Goals" Championship 550% x More Goals

WENT UP

034 03,008 Minutes 08 Goals 376 Mins/Goal Premiership
018 01,035 Minutes 04 Goals 259 Mins/Goal Premiership
026 01,266 Minutes 03 Goals 422 Mins/Goal Premiership
026 01,738 Minutes 07 Goals 248 Mins/Goal Premiership
029 01,565 Minutes 05 Goals 313 Mins/Goal Premiership
025 01,491 Minutes 05 Goals 298 Mins/Goal Premiership
010 00,467 Minutes 00 Goals XXX Mins/Goal Premiership

168 10,570 Minutes 32 Goals 330 Mins/Goal "10 Goals" Premiership (6.5 Seasons) 45% Goals 1/2.22 Multiple

017 01,428 Minutes 06 238 Mins/Goal 22 Championship 220% x Goals

UP

011 00,706 Minutes 00 XXX Mins/Goal Premiership (Failed to Score)

[maffff]

So next season it's fair to expect the following?

0 goals - Akpan, Blackman, Carriço, Cummings, Gunter, Kelly, McAnuff, Pearce, Roberts, Samuel, Williams
2.5 goals - Gorkss, Guthrie, Karacan, Mariappa, Leigertwood
3 goals - Bridge
5 goals - Morrison
7.5 goals - Drenthe, McCleary
15 goals - Kebe, Pogrebnyak
17.5 goals - Robson-Kanu
30 - Le Fondre

Shame we lost 5 goals in Hunt........

[Ouroboros]

You really aren't very bright, are you, Ian?

One thing about players moving up to the Premiership is that they have all had successful seasons. They've gone up a division either because their team has been promoted, or because they have impressed a Premiership club with their goalscoring. It's not a representative sample of players, and so to anticipate the same relationship in reverse assumes that every relegated player will be promoted the following season. (Equally the set of players performing in the top flight after promotion is not the same as the set of players relegated - but the two disparities shouldn't be assumed to cancel each other out).

It's typically facile of you to spot a relationship and completely miss its limited area of relevance.

And it goes without saying that answering a question about your statistical approach with a single piece of data (Jason Roberts) is risible.

[Snowball]

Our own Kevin Doyle

He had one very exceptional year in the Premiership in 2006-07
but the pattern is clear.



2005-06 203 Mins/Goal = "20 Goals" (46*90) Championship
UP
2007-09 290 Mins/Goal = "12 Goals" (38*90) Premiership 60% = 1.67 Multiple
DOWN
2009-10 191 Mins/Goal = "22 Goals" (46*90) Championship = 1.83 Multiple
UP
2010-12 436 Mins/Goal = "08 Goals" (38*90) Premiership 36% = 2.75 Multiple
DOWN
2012-13 353 Mins/Goal = "12 Goals" (46*90) Championship = 1.5 Multiple



PS (I was surprised to see Doyle managed 10 Championship goals last season in such a terrible Wolves team)



If you simply look at Doyle's goal-scoring he averages 1.8 times as many goals in the Championship

[Wycombe Royal]

Our own Kevin Doyle

He had one very exceptional year in the Premiership in 2006-07
but the pattern is clear.



2005-06 203 Mins/Goal = "20 Goals" (46*90) Championship
UP
2007-09 290 Mins/Goal = "12 Goals" (38*90) Premiership 60% = 1.67 Multiple
DOWN
2009-10 191 Mins/Goal = "22 Goals" (46*90) Championship = 1.83 Multiple
UP
2010-12 436 Mins/Goal = "08 Goals" (38*90) Premiership 36% = 2.75 Multiple
DOWN
2012-13 353 Mins/Goal = "12 Goals" (46*90) Championship = 1.5 Multiple



PS (I was surprised to see Doyle managed 10 Championship goals last season in such a terrible Wolves team)



If you simply look at Doyle's goal-scoring he averages 1.8 times as many goals in the Championship

I might be misreading your garbled stats but when in 2009/10 did Doyle play in the Championship? Wasn't he with Wolves in the Prem? Also, according to Soccerbase, he only scored 9 goals for Wolves last season.

[Ian Royal]

Nope. It's not me who's looking dim on this one. It's the stats professor who doesn't understand stats.

[Snowball]

Our own Kevin Doyle

He had one very exceptional year in the Premiership in 2006-07
but the pattern is clear.



2005-06 203 Mins/Goal = "20 Goals" (46*90) Championship (Reading)
UP
2006-08 290 Mins/Goal = "12 Goals" (38*90) Premiership (Reading) 60% = 1.67 Multiple
DOWN
2008-09 191 Mins/Goal = "22 Goals" (46*90) Championship (Reading) = 1.83 Multiple
UP
2009-11 436 Mins/Goal = "08 Goals" (38*90) Premiership (Wolves) 36% = 2.75 Multiple
DOWN
2012-13 353 Mins/Goal = "12 Goals" (46*90) Championship = 1.5 Multiple



PS (I was surprised to see Doyle managed 10 Championship goals last season in such a terrible Wolves team)



If you simply look at Doyle's goal-scoring he averages 1.8 times as many goals in the Championship

I might be misreading your garbled stats but when in 2009/10 did Doyle play in the Championship? Wasn't he with Wolves in the Prem? Also, according to Soccerbase, he only scored 9 goals for Wolves last season.

I had the order of seasons right, but mis-wrote the dates

Here they are

2005-06 3649 18 Goals 203 Mins/Goal Reading Championship
2006-08 5492 19 Goals 289 Mins/Goal Reading Premiership (2 Seasons Average)
2008-09 3440 18 Goals 191 Mins/Goal Reading Championship
2009-12 7420 18 Goals 412 Mins/Goal Wolves Premiership (3 Seasons Average)
2012-13 3534 10 Goals 353 Mins/Goal Wolves Championship

4140 20 Championship
3420 12 Premiership 40% Less 1.7 Multiple
4140 22 Championship 83% More 1.8 Multiple
3420 08 Premiership 64% Less 2.8 Multiple
4140 12 Championship 50% More 1.5 Multiple








Raw Data

2005-06 3649 18 Goals 203 Mins/Goal Reading Championship
2006-07 2474 13 Goals 190 Mins/Goal Reading Premiership
2007-08 3018 06 Goals 503 Mins/Goal Reading Premiership
2008-09 3440 18 Goals 191 Mins/Goal Reading Championship
2009-10 2886 09 Goals 321 Mins/Goal Wolves Premiership
2010-11 2185 05 Goals 437 Mins/Goal Wolves Premiership
2011-12 2349 04 Goals 587 Mins/Goal Wolves Premiership
2012-13 3534 10 Goals 353 Mins/Goal Wolves Championship

[Snowball]

Nope. It's not me who's looking dim on this one. It's the stats professor who doesn't understand stats.

I keep forgetting what an expert you are