Back From The Game - Bolton

[Millsy]

Can't bear to listen to Adkins, he's a bell.

I always switch off when he speaks for some reason.

But respect to the man for giving credit to yesterday's win to the fans and the staff etc rather than taking anything himself.

If we'd lost he'll would've broken loose for why he decided to play 442 when we leak goals, why Alfie who 'can't start' was starting, why drenthe wasn't playing, why he used league 1 Akpan in midfield, why he was using a left winger at left back, why pretend Guthrie's injured when he's our best CM etc etc.

He made the calls, he got the victory, yet he took no credit for it.

A bit of a bell sometimes but a top lad.

Nice one Adkins!!!!!

[sandman]

He was forced to make most of the changes due to injuries. If Guthrie was fit for the last two games I doubt Akpan would've played.

[Old Biscuitman]

All these smart statisticians have me confused now. Binary or boolean whatever. Yes or no, did we win yesterday?

[P!ssed Off]

A rank correlation as high as 0.81 suggests that the independent variable (which can only be the possession) is affecting the dependent variable (shots on goal, but not necessarily on target). I could refute each of your points one by one but that would bore fellow nobbers to death. I do, though, have an Honours degree in Pure Maths and Statistics and have, for many years, marked 'A' level Statistics papers. I do know what I am talking about.

But it doesn't. A high correlation suggests there is likely a relationship between A and B. It does not prove that A causes B, or vice versa.
I'm not suggesting the relationship is non-existent I'm suggesting it is spurious, with another variable affecting both possession and shots per game.

If someone wrote "high correlation, therefore A must cause B" in a statistics A Level exam, then you'd give them the mark?

[P!ssed Off]

Can't bear to listen to Adkins, he's a bell.

I always switch off when he speaks for some reason.

But respect to the man for giving credit to yesterday's win to the fans and the staff etc rather than taking anything himself.

If we'd lost he'll would've broken loose for why he decided to play 442 when we leak goals, why Alfie who 'can't start' was starting, why drenthe wasn't playing, why he used league 1 Akpan in midfield, why he was using a left winger at left back, why pretend Guthrie's injured when he's our best CM etc etc.

He made the calls, he got the victory, yet he took no credit for it.

A bit of a bell sometimes but a top lad.

Nice one Adkins!!!!!

He played the same team/formation that had won the previous match.
I'm not sure anyone would criticise a manager for adhering to the concept of 'never change a winning team' regardless of the result at the end of the match.

[winchester_royal]

Admittedly there may be other relevant variables that positively skew the relationship, but surely you must agree that there is some causality between possession? Even if it's as simplistic as more possession => more time with the ball => more opportunities to shoot.

[tmesis]

The graph does show correlation and that correlation is too strong to ignore. Taking just the Premier League results on the chart (and doing my best to read off reasonably accurate answers from the scale given) the coefficient of rank correlation (Spearman's for those interested) is around 0.81! This strongly suggests that shots on goal is statistically dependent on possession. The point about the teams having the same quality is only relevant if we are talking about shots on target where quality is more of a factor.

In pretty much any league, the better teams will have more of the ball and have more shots. That's what having better players will do for you.

Being able to keep the ball is an excellent asset for any team, but it's not a tactic in itself. It, like having a higher number of shots or corners, is often just a symptom of being a better team on the day, rather than inherently being why you were the better team.

What possession stats don't measure is how effectively you use the ball - how often your possessions led to meaningful opportunities. Not necessarily shots, but how often you worked the ball into a position where a chance of a shot was likely.

I'd rather see that counted - the number of possessions (not passes) in the box, the % of possessions that resulted in an opportunity. Perhaps a count of the number of 50/50 balls won by each side, and the number of times each team was either caught in possession or gave the ball away through mistakes.

If anyone suggested Bolton were in some ways the better team because they had more possession, they'd be laughed out of the room, yet we are constantly told to believe possession is a key statistic.

The premier league is skewed because of the talent imbalance, but I'd like someone to look at a division like the championship and seriously look at stats (not just the regular stats we use) and on an individual basis see which ones genuinely correlate to wins in individual games. I would bet (if perhaps not my whole house) on winning the possession battle being far less important than people think - or that you have to really dominate the possession stat to really see the advantage.

Look at Swansea - highest possession rate in the premier league, yet looking over their shoulder at the relegation battle.

[P!ssed Off]

Admittedly there may be other relevant variables that positively skew the relationship, but surely you must agree that there is some causality between possession? Even if it's as simplistic as more possession => more time with the ball => more opportunities to shoot.

Excuse the slow reply, my flatmate has just been burgled.
The commotion has taken a heavy toll on my ability to nob.

[Extended-Phenotype]

I love the way Reading fans just float whichever way the wind is blowing.

Earlier this season everyone was banging on about how amazing Danny Guthrie is and how the intelligent Adkins had got the best out of a player the tactical caveman McDermott didn't know how to. Now it seems Guthrie's the one to blame for slowing down our tempo and his absence is one reason we've notched a couple of wins recently, being replaced by Hope Akpan who was widely castig8ed on this board until two weeks ago.

Same with the possession obsession. 99% of you were going on about possession football and how important it is to dominate possession unlike McDermott's teams. Only now we've won 7-1 with only 48% of it, apparently it's not important anymore.

I look forward to you all revising your opinions about every one of our players at least twice between now and the end of the season.

Seems to me the sexyfootball gang are saying NA's tactics have adapted a little to accomodate the league. Seems fair enough.

Guthrie fans are suggesting playing him further up the pitch on his return or that his qualities might add further improvement, while his haters feel their opinions are vindicated by the last two games.

Akpan opinions have changed because his performances have improved.

So not sure that much flip-floping is really going on, though I'd rather folks opinions were changeable given new information, rather than remain stubbornly fixed - happy to agree to disagree though as I'm still pretty f/ckin chuffed about the game.

Funny how this patchwork team has put in the best performance of any in a long time. Ace stuff.

[cactuswood]

:|

When at last the team plays in the way that he's always wanted them to It's hardly a tactical change from Adkins.

So the lobs into the channels, or long goal kicks from the goalie to the front men, or the wingers actually playing up the wings in partnership with the full backs (rather than cutting inside) ...... that's what Adkins has been trying to get us to do is it? ...... funny, seems he's been coaching that exact thing out of them.

He was even having a go at some of the players (Obita esp) for being too direct when playing into the channels, instead of slowing it down and passing it short

Time and a place for all styles and yesterday showed that, long may it continue

John Madejski's Wallet, I so look forward to your posts, they are so informed. Did you use to be a manager or a big team player........

[P!ssed Off]

:|

When at last the team plays in the way that he's always wanted them to It's hardly a tactical change from Adkins.

So the lobs into the channels, or long goal kicks from the goalie to the front men, or the wingers actually playing up the wings in partnership with the full backs (rather than cutting inside) ...... that's what Adkins has been trying to get us to do is it? ...... funny, seems he's been coaching that exact thing out of them.

He was even having a go at some of the players (Obita esp) for being too direct when playing into the channels, instead of slowing it down and passing it short

Time and a place for all styles and yesterday showed that, long may it continue

John Madejski's Wallet, I so look forward to your posts, they are so informed. Did you use to be a manager or a big team player........

Who are you, Avon Royal's protégé?
Less sarc, more substance please!

[winchester_royal]

Admittedly there may be other relevant variables that positively skew the relationship, but surely you must agree that there is some causality between possession? Even if it's as simplistic as more possession => more time with the ball => more opportunities to shoot.

Excuse the slow reply, my flatmate has just been burgled.
The commotion has taken a heavy toll on my ability to nob.

A good example of a causal relationship. I wonder what the rank correlation coefficient is between burglaries and forum usage...

[John Madejski's Wallet]

Admittedly there may be other relevant variables that positively skew the relationship, but surely you must agree that there is some causality between possession? Even if it's as simplistic as more possession => more time with the ball => more opportunities to shoot.

Just not at Reading clearly

[winchester_royal]

Admittedly there may be other relevant variables that positively skew the relationship, but surely you must agree that there is some causality between possession? Even if it's as simplistic as more possession => more time with the ball => more opportunities to shoot.

Just not at Reading clearly

Yep. Things are pretty shit. Hopefully things pick up and we manage to avoid the drop.

[P!ssed Off]

Admittedly there may be other relevant variables that positively skew the relationship, but surely you must agree that there is some causality between possession? Even if it's as simplistic as more possession => more time with the ball => more opportunities to shoot.

Premier League this season:

Possession % per game:
1 Swansea 59.5
2 Southampton 57.8
3 Manchester City 56.6
4 Arsenal 56.6
5 Everton 55.8
6 Tottenham 55.8
7 Liverpool 55.1
8 Manchester United 54.7
9 Chelsea 54.4
10 Newcastle United 48.6
11 Stoke 47.1
12 West Bromwich Albion 46.5
13 Fulham 46.4
14 Norwich 46
15 Sunderland 45.7
16 Cardiff 44.8
17 West Ham 43.8
18 Hull 43.3
19 Aston Villa 42.2
20 Crystal Palace 39.3

Shots per game
1 Manchester City 17.7
2 Liverpool 16.7
3 Tottenham 16.4
4 Chelsea 16.1
5 Everton 15.7
6 Newcastle United 15.1
7 Arsenal 14.8
8 Southampton 13.4
9 Manchester United 13.2
10 Swansea 13.2
11 Norwich 12.9
12 West Bromwich Albion 12.3
13 Sunderland 12.3
14 Aston Villa 12.2
15 West Ham 12
16 Hull 11.5
17 Fulham 11.2
18 Crystal Palace 11.2
19 Stoke 11
20 Cardiff 10.7

If you separate teams into brackets of quality. i.e. accounting for the variable of quality then it becomes clearer imo.

If we say possession is the independent variable and shots per game is the dependent variable then for the bottom ten teams (in terms of possession) you get:
Stoke 11th 19th
West Bromwich Albion 12th 12th
Fulham 13th 17th
Norwich 14th 11th
Sunderland 15th 13th
Cardiff 16th 20th
West Ham 17th 15th
Hull 18th 16th
Aston Villa 19th 14th
Crystal Palace 20th 18th

tbh ^ that is a pretty weak correlation by the looks of it.

The two teams with the greatest amount of possession are Swansea and Southampton. But they're a fair way off the top 7 when it comes to shots per goals.
In fact, despite having so much more possession than all of the teams in the bottom half of the league they've not had many more shots.
Swansea vs Crystal Palace. An extreme possession discrepancy of 20.2%. That 20.2% has "caused" an extra 2 shots per game.

Like others have said, your graph's correlation is skewed massively by top teams behaving like top teams. That's not a model that Reading have much chance in following. We can't pay players £100K per week, and we can't spend £20 million on individual transfers.

We can try to follow the model of Southampton but let's not forget that their model is not easily replicable or cheap either. They've spent a shitload on transfer fees and they've got one of the best youth academies in the country. Can we compete on either counts.
Plus the Southampton model involves sacking Adkins, so all in all I'm not sure why all the Adkinistas are so cheery.

[St. Brynjar]

The whole point of using quantitative statistics methods is objectivity. Correlation says absolutely nothing about causality. It implies, but doesn't actually tell you anything definitively. You need to look at something like regression analysis to investigate causality.

[sandman]

My Cats breath smells like Cat food.

[kwik-silva]

If that penalty decision had been at the other end we'd be desperately arguing that he was out of the box, it's right on the line.

It's another Brynjar v Liverpool. To me it looks on the line, so it's a pen. Admittedly I may think differently if it's a Reading arm.

[Maguire]

Can't bear to listen to Adkins, he's a bell.

I always switch off when he speaks for some reason.

But respect to the man for giving credit to yesterday's win to the fans and the staff etc rather than taking anything himself.

If we'd lost he'll would've broken loose for why he decided to play 442 when we leak goals, why Alfie who 'can't start' was starting, why drenthe wasn't playing, why he used league 1 Akpan in midfield, why he was using a left winger at left back, why pretend Guthrie's injured when he's our best CM etc etc.

He made the calls, he got the victory, yet he took no credit for it.

A bit of a bell sometimes but a top lad.

Nice one Adkins!!!!!

I listened to his interview and he was going on about the guy in the lion costume taking a break and saying "i'm just doing my bit for the team" and how it was a great example of teamwork etc.

Come on Nige

[soggy biscuit]

IN! for the Adkins is a massive belmont club