Play-off/relegation watch.

[Hound]

Hard to believe they`ve been bottom 4 for quite a long time this season

It’s hard not to pick an arbitrary point, but they won twenty games ago, and that’s a nice round number. It also took them off bottom position.

Played 20 won 11 drawn 3 lost 6 for 1.8 ppg.

It is quite similar to our recent/LEAM form, you know.

So, are we now agreed that having a slow start to a season isn’t an excuse to shit the bed?

I'm sure we'll have more bed shitting this season. And next.

Im certainly not one for big over the top reactions myself, X is ridiculous, but not sure what the point being made here is?

Is shitting the bed sacking the manager? Coz rightly or wrongly that what’s looks like it’s turned our season around.

Plymouth didn’t sack Cleverley and have recovered but surely they’d have expected to be about ten points better off than they currently are?

IMO people ‘shat the bed’ when whinging that Hunt was sacked, the club losing its soul and all that nonsense. Whereas had he stayed we’d may well still have been looking at a relegation

[SouthDownsRoyal]

Hard to believe they`ve been bottom 4 for quite a long time this season

It’s hard not to pick an arbitrary point, but they won twenty games ago, and that’s a nice round number. It also took them off bottom position.

Played 20 won 11 drawn 3 lost 6 for 1.8 ppg.

It is quite similar to our recent/LEAM form, you know.

So, are we now agreed that having a slow start to a season isn’t an excuse to shit the bed?

I'm sure we'll have more bed shitting this season. And next.

And the next

[Snowflake Royal]

It’s hard not to pick an arbitrary point, but they won twenty games ago, and that’s a nice round number. It also took them off bottom position.

Played 20 won 11 drawn 3 lost 6 for 1.8 ppg.

It is quite similar to our recent/LEAM form, you know.

So, are we now agreed that having a slow start to a season isn’t an excuse to shit the bed?

I'm sure we'll have more bed shitting this season. And next.

Im certainly not one for big over the top reactions myself, X is ridiculous, but not sure what the point being made here is?

Is shitting the bed sacking the manager? Coz rightly or wrongly that what’s looks like it’s turned our season around.

Plymouth didn’t sack Cleverley and have recovered but surely they’d have expected to be about ten points better off than they currently are?

IMO people ‘shat the bed’ when whinging that Hunt was sacked, the club losing its soul and all that nonsense. Whereas had he stayed we’d may well still have been looking at a relegation

People shat the bed when we lost our first 3 games. People shat the bed with a couple of draws a few weeks ago. Or most times we lose a game.

Hunt had been steadily recovering things, so whilst Leam has certainly taken us up a notch in results, the manager change was hardly a sea change, another step forward certainly, but other steps had been taken first. We would be unlikely to in relegation trouble if Hunt had stayed. Worse off than we are now, but not that bad.

[Hound]

I'm sure we'll have more bed shitting this season. And next.

Im certainly not one for big over the top reactions myself, X is ridiculous, but not sure what the point being made here is?

Is shitting the bed sacking the manager? Coz rightly or wrongly that what’s looks like it’s turned our season around.

Plymouth didn’t sack Cleverley and have recovered but surely they’d have expected to be about ten points better off than they currently are?

IMO people ‘shat the bed’ when whinging that Hunt was sacked, the club losing its soul and all that nonsense. Whereas had he stayed we’d may well still have been looking at a relegation

People shat the bed when we lost our first 3 games. People shat the bed with a couple of draws a few weeks ago. Or most times we lose a game.

Hunt had been steadily recovering things, so whilst Leam has certainly taken us up a notch in results, the manager change was hardly a sea change, another step forward certainly, but other steps had been taken first. We would be unlikely to in relegation trouble if Hunt had stayed. Worse off than we are now, but not that bad.

Well that’s just an opinion isn’t it? I think we’d still be right down there. We still don’t look an especially good side and it wouldn’t take a huge leap of imagination to see us 10 points worse off under a less experienced manager

I think most people are fairly balanced in their views tbh. We all sound off now and again but I think people were rightly worried about the drop personally. I don’t think we’d have gone down but I reckon we’d have been pretty nervous

[Elm Park Kid]

I don't think people are overreacting to Tuesday night. Yes, it was one game, away in a cold, windy northern ground, on a crap pitch. There's all the ingredients there for a bad performance and result. But that wasn't just a 'bad' performance - it was non-league standard. A complete lack of any skill, ability, pace or confidence.

That's what the fans are picking up on - that maybe some fortunate late wins have masked how poor the team is actually playing.

[Hound]

The lack of being able to do the most basic of things - control the ball, take a goal kick, put a couple of passes together was genuinely embarrassing. It’s probably the lowest standard we’ve played all year

What was especially frustrating was the few times we got it right we created chances quite easily

Just a pretty bad day all round. Not the end of the world though and hopefully we’ll bounce back Saturday

[Stranded]

The lack of being able to do the most basic of things - control the ball, take a goal kick, put a couple of passes together was genuinely embarrassing. It’s probably the lowest standard we’ve played all year

What was especially frustrating was the few times we got it right we created chances quite easily

Just a pretty bad day all round. Not the end of the world though and hopefully we’ll bounce back Saturday

It's the Reading way - get in a position where we can move into a position of "success" i.e. move into the play-off positions, shit the bed.

With Stockport travelling to Lincoln on Saturday and Huddersfield having the banana skin of an away trip to Vale's cabbage patch, we could easily move into the top 6 on Saturday - so if we win, so will the other 2, if we don't they will drop points and we'll drop down to 10th.

[stealthpapes]

This is where we were at the start of the thread.

Leam overall form in league - played 13 won 6 draw 4 lost 3

1.69 ppg

This is where we are now.

Leam overall form in league - played 22 won 11 draw 6 lost 5

1.77 ppg

So in a spell where we had Bolton (H), Port Vale (A) and Mansfield (A), necessitating a solid 7 pager for the 'Bolton fall out' in particular, we've actually improved our results. People singing 'sacked in the morning' at Port Vale.

Even if we were, for arguments' sake, a 2 ppg team - play 5 win 3 draw 1 lose 1, you're looking at 1 Bolton and maybe 1 Port Vale/Mansfield every 5-10 games.

[Clyde1998]

Doing some basic calculations on the remaining matches. Using the points per game for each side against sides in each quarter of the division (1st-6th; 7th-12th; 13th-18th; 19th-24th), and assuming sides continue that form in their remaining matches, the final table would be:

1. Cardiff - 96.76
2. Lincoln - 95.90
3. Bradford (+1) - 78.72
4. Bolton (-1) - 77.89
5. Stockport - 76.91
6. Wycombe (+2) - 71.10
7. Stevenage (+2) - 71.42
8. Reading (-1) - 69.33
9. Huddersfield (-3) - 67.71
10. Barnsley (+3) - 66.17
11. Luton (-1) - 63.60
12. Peterborough (-1) - 61.84
13. Plymouth (-1) - 61.83
14. Wimbledon - 61.00
15. Mansfield (+1) - 57.52
16. Exeter (-1) - 56.13
17. Wigan (+2) - 55.21
18. Doncaster - 54.59
19. Burton (-2) - 52.55
20. Blackpool - 50.48
21. Leyton Orient - 50.45
22. Northampton - 49.51
23. Rotherham - 47.39
24. Port Vale - 36.02

Ourselves; Huddersfield; and Barnsley have basically an even distribution of matches against sides from each quarter of the league (albeit, we play a game more than Huddersfield; three less than Barnsley). Stevenage play eight sides in the bottom half; five in the top half. Wycombe basically play sides in the top or bottom six, but their record against each has been good this season so far.

Update ahead of the weekend:

1. Lincoln - 97.21 (+1.31)
2. Cardiff - 93.33 (-3.43)
3. Bradford (+1) - 80.99 (+2.27)
4. Bolton (-1) - 80.95 (+3.06)
5. Stockport - 74.65 (-2.26)
6. Stevenage (+2) - 70.63 (-0.79)
7. Wycombe (+2) - 70.03 (-1.07)
8. Reading (-1) - 69.47 (+0.13)
9. Huddersfield (-3) - 68.63 (+0.92)
10. Barnsley (+3) - 66.33 (+0.16)
11. Plymouth (-1) - 65.71 (+3.88)
12. Wimbledon (-1) - 63.87 (+2.87)
13. Peterborough (+1) - 61.60 (-0.24)
14. Luton (-2) - 61.35 (-2.25)
15. Mansfield - 58.29 (+0.76)
16. Doncaster (+2) - 55.80 (+1.21)
17. Exeter (-1) - 52.45 (-3.68)
18. Wigan (+3) - 51.88 (-3.33)
19. Leyton Orient - 51.79 (+1.33)
20. Burton (-3) - 50.08 (-2.47)
21. Blackpool (-1) - 49.08 (-1.40)
22. Rotherham - 46.44 (-0.95)
23. Northampton - 45.91 (-3.60)
24. Port Vale - 36.67 (+0.65)

[stealthpapes]

My one, mild, critique of the methodology would be that it likely overweights a poor start.

Lincoln, Huddersfield, Bolton - 1 point from 3 games in that opening salvo.
Later games against current top six - Cardiff 0 from 1, Bradford 3 from 2, Stockport 4 from 2, Bolton 1 from 1, 8 from 6 games.

Overall form vs top 6 is 9 from 9, 1 ppg but we've done remarkably solidly outside of the poor start. If our remaining games vs Top 6 sides (Lincoln (H), Cardiff (H), Huddersfield (A)) track the overall form, its 3 points. If they track current form, its 4, maybe 5.

OK its worth 1-2 points, but it lines your estimate up quite closely with the alternative method I've been using.